Q1 - February - Trading Performance Review

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22 Trades, 12 Winners, 5 Losers & 4 Break Even equating to a 54% strike rate and closing the month of February with 6.6% Return on Investment.

Out of 22 trades, 17 were SELL’s this month, leaving 5 BUY’s.

Out of the 4 weeks of February, there was again only one single negative week of -0.63%.

A key breakthrough and focus this month really has been on focusing on High Probability Setups vs Valid Setups.

A High Probability Setup is taking a trade around an area of value based on the Higher Timeframes, whereas a Valid Setup is a some of structural pattern that aligns on the Lower Timeframe but may not be at an area of Value on the Higher Timeframe.

Throughout March I’ll be working on filtering these trades further to reduce the total of trades taken, as upon reflection the amount of trades against the total return is not congruent and will be a goal on reducing this significantly.

Following the same format, I’ll breakdown some of the best and worst trades of the month.

(Remember to ‘Tap' or ‘Click’ the images to flick through each of the trades as these are slideshows)

NZDCAD

  • 50% Retracement and corrective ascending structure

  • 15M Ascending within Ascending at top of structure

  • Possible to go to structure lows to complete pattern of 3 Touch

  • Price still at top of structure zone so valid High Probability setup

Was actually tapped in by a pip, before it retraced for a mini double top on the news before dropping. Good enough stop placement kept me in this trade.

High Probability Setup and great management, with slightly higher aggression towards the third touch of the structure low but understanding a hover could present itself to carry on to break structure, so gave this enough room until the descending structure began forming.

After seeing the descending structure, knew it was possible a deeper correction could occur rather than  small hover, and it would be best to lock in profit and look for a Risk Entry with the deeper correction.


USDCAD

  • Arch into Double Top on 15M

  • Decelleration at top of structure

  • Daily Trendline retest

  • Hourly Falcon Flag formation

Valid Position, just not High Probability Position. Came from an impulse and HTF was not in line with lower and 15M. The Daily actually had a descending nature to it, with a strong momentum candle, so it was more ambitious entry as it was going against the HTF.

Happy with the management to aggressive manage, as this did eventually move further to the upside.


GBPUSD

  • Expanding Triangle Formation on Hourly

  • HTF momentum to downside with strong daily close

  • 2 Touch Corrective formation

  • Risk Entry on 15M with Double Top and ascending channel

Good and high probability trade, a better entry would have been the retracement on the 15Minute but I didn’t catch this in time.

By getting the better entry management would have been easier, I closed this out a little too early as it dropped another 2%, however it did eventually retrace with a large spike so I wouldn’t have capitalised this entire 2%.

Happy with the trade and management overall.


NZDUSD

  • Impulsive break of inflection points on Daily & 4 Hourly

  • Heavy momentum to downside.

  • Still a little room till next inner structure

  • 15M Ascending Channel 

  • 15M Ascending within Ascending

  • Hourly Bear Flag formation

Due to going to bed, wasn’t able to capitalise further on the trade, however with real management in person would only have yielded a 1% win overall b the looks of it.

Valid trade, however I knew it was possible that it could evolve into a deeper corrective structure from this before, however it was probable of dropping so happy to take the Risk Entry to see if it does move.

No real way to manage this when it took me out of my Stop for 0.5% overnight in the early morning.

Happy with the trade and management, would do the same.


EURUSD

  • Break of Daily Corrective Structure

  • Tight Corrective price action on hourly

  • 15M 2 Top Flag Structure

Was a Valid Setup, but not the best and would probably avoid in future. I knew management had to be aggressive on this, but the break had potential to carry on for the outer structure Third Touch. In this, I was ignorant to the potential Double Bottom at the Third Touch zone of the larger descending pattern, and I should have separated patterns in this case.

Happy with the management of moving to 0.5%, had the chance to move to a Full Break Even on the retrace, but I’ve experienced EURUSD retesting and dropping and I’ve emotionally closed and seen it drop. Was happy to accept a 0.5% Risk on that potential as I was already in the trade, but could have avoided this completely and seen the better BUY setup playing out.

A better and safer entry would have been the Risk Entry on the Double Top Retracement on the 15M, I actually watched this play out pondering whether to enter the trade but I didn’t want to Risk it at this level with a possibility of a larger continuation up - however this would have made management easier and been able to move to Break Even leaving more room for price to breath.

A better and safer entry would have been the Risk Entry on the Double Top Retracement on the 15M, I actually watched this play out pondering whether to enter the trade but I didn’t want to Risk it at this level with a possibility of a larger continuation up - however this would have made management easier and been able to move to Break Even leaving more room for price to breath.


EURUSD

  • Impulsive Daily Candle and Third Touch Retracement

  • Hourly Impulse

  • 15M Penant Continuation Pattern

Although a Valid Setup, again it wasn’t the best as a possible larger continuation could likely to form. I accepted this in the evening forecasting before placing the trade, but the Tighter Flag was forming that I decided to take a Reduced Risk Entry.

Woke up in the evening to around 3 PIPs in drawdown and price wasn’t looking good at the time to continue up so I manually closed. Just after closing it dropped  all the way back to the lows. Happy with the management and decision, may be best to avoid in future especially going into the Asian Session.


AUDUSD

  • HTF Corrective Structure

  • HTF still possible to correct up for a Double Top / 2nd Top

  • HTF descending within descending so more Risky and possible reversal

  • Aim to play down move within the corrective channel

  • Multiple Touch on Hourly Ascending structure

  • Arch into Double Top on Hourly

  • Ascending within Ascending at the Top of Structure, Ascending Corrective

  • Strong Impulsive Rejection and Retrace


Was just a case of probabilities this time, with the news announcement over night of the AUD. Perhaps took this a little too close to the mark switch over times and holding overnight without being able to efficiently manage.

Entered trade around 20:00 but no real movement. Stop size couldn’t have been improved as the spike would have always have happened.

Entry was a little too wide, moving into the 15M it’s clear the entry was large and in hindsight this was an emotional trade placement. A better approach should have been to await a correction after the move instead of trying to catch the top - (which leads to the next trade).

AUDUSD

I awoke during the night and saw I had been taken out of the previous trade, along with the impulsive momentum I placed an entry after seeing a correction on the 15M.

Was not the best entry, I had placed the entry around where 15M was currently and by time it had dropped my entry was already far away from previous candle.

Wouldn’t have normally been in this trade as wouldn’t be up at that time to take it, but a valid and generally a good trade (if entry was tighter at a better time).

Fortunately just a trade that played out, but risky taking during the night after awaking. Will not be doing that again.


EURUSD

  • HTF Descending Channel

  • Descending within Descending Breakout

  • Correction after Impulsive Breakout

  • Second Touch of Flag Formation

  • Corrective descending structure to second bottom / test of outer structure


EURUSD

Following on from last trade, looking at a bounce within the flag after descending nature within the structure.

Very happy with the trade and great entry on this one. Unfortunately did not play out in this case.

Could have locked in 1% Profit at the Structure Highs, but didn’t at this time as FOMC was upcoming and this always provides huge volatility, with the potential of spiking down then shooting up - something I was happy to Risk, as at this point I was protected at Break Even.


EURUSD

Again persistence with the Continuation Pattern to the upside, resulting in another Break Even.

Position 3 - Close.png

GBPAUD

  • Double Top

  • Ascending within Ascending

  • Multi Touch Resistance at Double Top zone

  • Corrective Ascending Nature towards Double Top

  • Impulsive move out of Corrective Ascending Structure

  • HTF Ascending within Ascending


USDCAD

  • HTF Descending Expanding Wedge

  • 2nd Touch of HTF Structure

  • 4 Hourly Double Top and Impulsive Rejection

  • Impulsive Break of Ascending Trendline

  • Tight Correction

Avoidable by having awaiting a Risk Entry.

Price on the 15M was correctively approach the entry, this was the signal that this was looking to move up one more time. I watched this, but kept the entry - a safer place would have been to enter on the break of the low.

Almost closed only a couple of PIPs into the entry of the trade, due to the correctiveness but didn’t - need to work on the emotional control of closing out. I was comfortable leaving it as I was anticipating the Risk Entry at the top so thought it would drop and remain in profit. With this logic, I should have closed for a smaller loss for the better trade anyways and preserve capital.

USDCAD

  • Evolved Trendline & Impulsive break / continuation from previous 

  • Tight 15M Flag and Hourly Corrective Continuation Formation

For the Risk Reward - should have remained at 1% and not moved to 0.5%. In these circumstances, it’s best not to be greedy and trying to achieve a small amount of profit when the downside potential is higher.

Keeping at breakeven could have closed for just over 1.4% instead of a smaller amount.


EURJPY

There were two points of interest, the inner structure Third Touch or the Outer Structure Third Touch. 

As price reached inner structure Third Touch, we saw a rejection and I took a continuation on the 15M. Knowing that it was possible this could just be a move down short-term before a move up for the larger outer structure sell.

  • HTF Ascending Channel

  • HTF Correction after impulsive move

  • LTF Ascending within Ascending

  • Hourly Retrace at Third Touch

Very happy with this trade however it was a mismanagement, a High Probability Setup at Third Touch, with retracement and Risk Entry.

I should have left this at Break Even, with the potential to the downside and taken in a scale-in (which would be the next trade below). This would have enabled me to lock in around 2% safely.

Moved past Break Even just to reward myself and looking fairly impulsive from the trendline bounce, however a ‘Hover’ Formation was being created in hindsight analysis and potential Double Top in that zone was possible so not a safe place to move a Stop to.

Great Entry, just needed better management and less aggression.

EURJPY

  • Continuation from previous confluences

  • 15M Double Top within Ascending Triangle / Falcon Flag Formation

  • 15M Retrace

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Lovely pattern, with the expanding Triangle Double Top Risk Entry formation.

Management could have been improved, was expecting a possible a retest of the trend line break, but it just broke back through.

Potential to move to 1% on the break of the trendline but with the potential to the downside at this point I didn’t want to squeeze the trade to be tapped out then it drop.


EURUSD

Corrective Ascending Pattern within Expanding Wedge on the Higher Timeframe.

Potential to:

  1. Move down for Third Touch before Bounce within Expanding Wedge

  2. Break down to HTF outer structure for Third Touch

The second scenario was possible as this would complete the pattern, which would then create a reversal, descending pattern with 3 Touches, which would be a higher probability Pattern within Pattern setup.

Looking to capitalise on the move down from here for a Short Term play for the pattern completion.

Third Touch on the hourly saw a retrace, I entered on the break-below of this, utilising the 15M for precision as this showed a small tight continuation.

Went with a slightly wider Stop for a 15M entry, 20 instead of 15 due to thinking this had the potential to move back up for a retest so didn’t want an unnecessary tag-in-out and drop situation.

Very happy with this forecast, analysis and entry.

Fortunately I was working from home so capable of catching such a tight entry.

This really shows, with conviction and True Risk reward the better entries.

Multiple stacked confluences on this and a solid setup & trade.

Management was very good, using previous resistance as trail stop area. Price did eventually move all the way to break even then full retrace so it was best to manage aggressively as I did while it was uncertain around the trendline area.


USDCAD

  • Third Touch HTF Resistance

  • Hourly Ascending Corrective Channel towards third touch

  • Hourly Rejection & Retracement 

  • Hourly Tweezer Top

Entry taken on on low of the retrace candle anticipating a break of the ascending channel.

Potential for a tighter entry but very happy with entry and management. 

Because quite aggressive with management towards the Double Bottom zone, potential to lock in a little bit more profit but used previous highs on the Hourly as an inflection zone for invalidation if price was to reverse. Ended up being spiked out.