Q1 - January - Trading Performance Review

2019 kicked off to a great start in the currency markets, with Canadian Dollar related pairs providing ample opportunities to capitalise on early on in January, and mostly towards the end too.

In total, 34 Trades were taken in January; 14 Winners, 18 losers and 2 Break Evens, equating to a 43% strike rate and closing out on a 14.6% Return on Investment.

(The number of losers is actually a little bit off here, as these are inclusive of just below ‘Break Even’ trades through either spread or slippage, with a more accurate figure of 15 losses.)

(Capital privatised for obvious reasons)

(Capital privatised for obvious reasons)

Through the 5 weeks in January, there was only a single negative week of -3.01%.

The 15 Minute Timeframe has been utilised throughout January, with greater emphasis on this timeframe brought forward on the 4th week as by this time a significant amount of time on backtesting the inclusion of this timeframe had been done.

Utilising the 15 Minute Timeframe has been incredible in boosting both trading results, but also providing better entry opportunities and removing any emotion of ‘Fear of Missing Out’ once a move has begun, as usually a 15M continuation opportunity presents itself after the confirmation.

Selection of Trades

As there was 34 trades throughout the month, I’m only going to discuss a selection of these trades; The best, good trades that resulted in a loss and avoidable ones.

(Please swipe, or click the images to scroll through them to see outcomes)

USDCAD - WIN

This trade was taken on the first week of January 2019.

There was this consolidation period seen on the hourly, unable to break above resistance and with the Higher Timeframe Structure looking prime to move to the downside, I was obviously looking for SELL setups.

After a small Impulsive Candle on the Hourly, I looked on the 15M chart to see a very nice consolidation and tight ascending structure. I decided to place an entry on the break of this ascending channel with a 15 PIP Stop - targeting the start of the Correction for around 10%.

This position was a little mismanaged, with the Higher TIme Frame (HTF) sentiment as backup, I should have been less aggressive with my trailing stop placement to allow ‘breathing room’. As eventually I was tagged out the market by a PIP for it to carry on in the direction for another 10%+.

GBPUSD - 0.03% LOSS

This resulted in a very small loss by a manual close, due to hesitation with the pattern due to the flash crash, this actually ended up moving on another 3% without me.

Tight consolidation/continuation flag after the impulsive retracement after the crash, was looking at this as a continuation to the upside.

I was triggered in but price stalled and didn’t quite breakout, where I lost conviction and decided to manually close.

GBPJPY - -1% LOSS

Similar sentiment and analysis as GBPUSD but GBPJPY, looking for that continuation from the previous week.

Descending Channel within Bull Flag formation, looking for a retrace off of the Third Touch of the Flag.

Entered as a Risk Entry (as this hadn’t breaked the descending structure) - was tagged in and price immediately dropped back down, to evolve into a deeper pattern.

GBPJPY - 1% WIN

Carrying on from previous analysis, the loss had just lead to a deeper evolved structure, and took another position on the retracement looking for break of the descending channel within the flag.

No real follow through around the resistance zone of the Flag and decided to lock in profit on a break of the Ascending Corrective Channel.

NZDCAD - -1% LOSS

Daily Descending Structure, with Hover/Bull Flag formation at top of Daily Structure visible on both the Hourly and 4 Hourly. Entry was taken on the 15M for a clearer 2nd Bottom Flag formation.

Tapped in and price moved a little bit, but not much room to manage effectively by moving to Break Even, until eventually dropped straight down.

A valid trade, but would probably avoid in the future and look for the Risk Entry within the pattern rather than a break of the larger structure. Or a continuation after the break of the larger structure.

EURUSD - 0.5% LOSS

Bear Flag continuation pattern after break of Rising Wedge pattern. Tight consolidation on Hourly, took more evolved Flag Pattern from the 15M.

Understanding that EURUSD price action was looking like it was falling in a descending pattern I accepted the Risk, also HTF wasn’t really showing a huge amount.

After the break, I moved to 0.5% Risk, but price retraced straight back up evolving into a deeper flag.

Valid setup, but would avoid in future - the Higher Probability Setups are earlier on in the move and this had a higher probability of evolving into a deeper structure if it didn’t break impulsively and convincingly.

EURAUD - 1.5% WIN

Ascending formation into Double Top on the Hourly, within an Arch into Double Top within the Ascending Channel.

Entry taken on the 15M retrace/Double Top rejection.

Price Broke the Ascending Channel but retraced and took me out, I had trailed my Stop towards the break of this channel as an obvious inflection point.

USDCAD - 0.5% WIN

Break of Ascending structure within correction, Falcon Flag formed and looked to take a Risk Entry on the 2nd Top of the Flag, with the consolidation and deceleration around this zone.

Price broke down and I moved to 0.5% as at this point, I felt the initial trade would be invalidated and likely to be evolving into another deeper structure or expanding formation.

Position 7 - Open : Close.png

USDCAD - 6.32% WIN

With evolved structure from previous trade into an expanding triangle formation, took an entry on the 15M retrace at previous highs Double Top with a 20 PIP stop.

Very happy with this trade, and a great lesson in not being put off from a previous trade closing out and always looking for the next opportunity and reading what the market is telling you. Not being scared by a loss or Break Even and always taking the next trade that presents itself.

Position 1 - Hourly - Close.png

NZDCAD - 3 WINS

Final Trade on this is still running into Feburary so no ‘closed’ to show just yet.

HTF 3 Touch structure was the filtering mechanism for taking this trade. Ascending Structure within the Flag formation, looking at this as a continuation to the downside.

Hourly Ascending Structure, actually hesitated on the initial 15M entry on the Ascending at the top of structure within the Hourly ‘Hover’ Pattern, but took entry on the 15M continuation on the impulsive break down. (Another lesson on always looking for the next opportunity and the 15M always presenting another entry the further up it is in the move).

Second Position ended up in a deeper pullback and I was taken out due to the Spread, something out of my control. But conviction in not being afraid of the impulsive nature of price action within the corrective structure, and taking the Third Test of resistance of the Hourly Ascending Structure with entry on the Retracement from the 15M Timeframe.