22 Trades, 12 Winners, 5 Losers & 4 Break Even equating to a 54% strike rate and closing the month of February with 6.6% Return on Investment.
Out of 22 trades, 17 were SELL’s this month, leaving 5 BUY’s.
Out of the 4 weeks of February, there was again only one single negative week of -0.63%.
A key breakthrough and focus this month really has been on focusing on High Probability Setups vs Valid Setups.
A High Probability Setup is taking a trade around an area of value based on the Higher Timeframes, whereas a Valid Setup is a some of structural pattern that aligns on the Lower Timeframe but may not be at an area of Value on the Higher Timeframe.
Throughout March I’ll be working on filtering these trades further to reduce the total of trades taken, as upon reflection the amount of trades against the total return is not congruent and will be a goal on reducing this significantly.
Following the same format, I’ll breakdown some of the best and worst trades of the month.
(Remember to ‘Tap' or ‘Click’ the images to flick through each of the trades as these are slideshows)
50% Retracement and corrective ascending structure
15M Ascending within Ascending at top of structure
Possible to go to structure lows to complete pattern of 3 Touch
Price still at top of structure zone so valid High Probability setup
Was actually tapped in by a pip, before it retraced for a mini double top on the news before dropping. Good enough stop placement kept me in this trade.
High Probability Setup and great management, with slightly higher aggression towards the third touch of the structure low but understanding a hover could present itself to carry on to break structure, so gave this enough room until the descending structure began forming.
After seeing the descending structure, knew it was possible a deeper correction could occur rather than small hover, and it would be best to lock in profit and look for a Risk Entry with the deeper correction.
Arch into Double Top on 15M
Decelleration at top of structure
Daily Trendline retest
Hourly Falcon Flag formation
Valid Position, just not High Probability Position. Came from an impulse and HTF was not in line with lower and 15M. The Daily actually had a descending nature to it, with a strong momentum candle, so it was more ambitious entry as it was going against the HTF.
Happy with the management to aggressive manage, as this did eventually move further to the upside.
Expanding Triangle Formation on Hourly
HTF momentum to downside with strong daily close
2 Touch Corrective formation
Risk Entry on 15M with Double Top and ascending channel
Good and high probability trade, a better entry would have been the retracement on the 15Minute but I didn’t catch this in time.
By getting the better entry management would have been easier, I closed this out a little too early as it dropped another 2%, however it did eventually retrace with a large spike so I wouldn’t have capitalised this entire 2%.
Happy with the trade and management overall.
Impulsive break of inflection points on Daily & 4 Hourly
Heavy momentum to downside.
Still a little room till next inner structure
15M Ascending Channel
15M Ascending within Ascending
Hourly Bear Flag formation
Due to going to bed, wasn’t able to capitalise further on the trade, however with real management in person would only have yielded a 1% win overall b the looks of it.
Valid trade, however I knew it was possible that it could evolve into a deeper corrective structure from this before, however it was probable of dropping so happy to take the Risk Entry to see if it does move.
No real way to manage this when it took me out of my Stop for 0.5% overnight in the early morning.
Happy with the trade and management, would do the same.
Break of Daily Corrective Structure
Tight Corrective price action on hourly
15M 2 Top Flag Structure
Was a Valid Setup, but not the best and would probably avoid in future. I knew management had to be aggressive on this, but the break had potential to carry on for the outer structure Third Touch. In this, I was ignorant to the potential Double Bottom at the Third Touch zone of the larger descending pattern, and I should have separated patterns in this case.
Happy with the management of moving to 0.5%, had the chance to move to a Full Break Even on the retrace, but I’ve experienced EURUSD retesting and dropping and I’ve emotionally closed and seen it drop. Was happy to accept a 0.5% Risk on that potential as I was already in the trade, but could have avoided this completely and seen the better BUY setup playing out.
Impulsive Daily Candle and Third Touch Retracement
15M Penant Continuation Pattern
Although a Valid Setup, again it wasn’t the best as a possible larger continuation could likely to form. I accepted this in the evening forecasting before placing the trade, but the Tighter Flag was forming that I decided to take a Reduced Risk Entry.
Woke up in the evening to around 3 PIPs in drawdown and price wasn’t looking good at the time to continue up so I manually closed. Just after closing it dropped all the way back to the lows. Happy with the management and decision, may be best to avoid in future especially going into the Asian Session.
HTF Corrective Structure
HTF still possible to correct up for a Double Top / 2nd Top
HTF descending within descending so more Risky and possible reversal
Aim to play down move within the corrective channel
Multiple Touch on Hourly Ascending structure
Arch into Double Top on Hourly
Ascending within Ascending at the Top of Structure, Ascending Corrective
Strong Impulsive Rejection and Retrace
Was just a case of probabilities this time, with the news announcement over night of the AUD. Perhaps took this a little too close to the mark switch over times and holding overnight without being able to efficiently manage.
Entered trade around 20:00 but no real movement. Stop size couldn’t have been improved as the spike would have always have happened.
Entry was a little too wide, moving into the 15M it’s clear the entry was large and in hindsight this was an emotional trade placement. A better approach should have been to await a correction after the move instead of trying to catch the top - (which leads to the next trade).
I awoke during the night and saw I had been taken out of the previous trade, along with the impulsive momentum I placed an entry after seeing a correction on the 15M.
Was not the best entry, I had placed the entry around where 15M was currently and by time it had dropped my entry was already far away from previous candle.
Wouldn’t have normally been in this trade as wouldn’t be up at that time to take it, but a valid and generally a good trade (if entry was tighter at a better time).
Fortunately just a trade that played out, but risky taking during the night after awaking. Will not be doing that again.
HTF Descending Channel
Descending within Descending Breakout
Correction after Impulsive Breakout
Second Touch of Flag Formation
Corrective descending structure to second bottom / test of outer structure
Following on from last trade, looking at a bounce within the flag after descending nature within the structure.
Very happy with the trade and great entry on this one. Unfortunately did not play out in this case.
Could have locked in 1% Profit at the Structure Highs, but didn’t at this time as FOMC was upcoming and this always provides huge volatility, with the potential of spiking down then shooting up - something I was happy to Risk, as at this point I was protected at Break Even.
Again persistence with the Continuation Pattern to the upside, resulting in another Break Even.
Ascending within Ascending
Multi Touch Resistance at Double Top zone
Corrective Ascending Nature towards Double Top
Impulsive move out of Corrective Ascending Structure
HTF Ascending within Ascending
HTF Descending Expanding Wedge
2nd Touch of HTF Structure
4 Hourly Double Top and Impulsive Rejection
Impulsive Break of Ascending Trendline
Avoidable by having awaiting a Risk Entry.
Price on the 15M was correctively approach the entry, this was the signal that this was looking to move up one more time. I watched this, but kept the entry - a safer place would have been to enter on the break of the low.
Almost closed only a couple of PIPs into the entry of the trade, due to the correctiveness but didn’t - need to work on the emotional control of closing out. I was comfortable leaving it as I was anticipating the Risk Entry at the top so thought it would drop and remain in profit. With this logic, I should have closed for a smaller loss for the better trade anyways and preserve capital.
Evolved Trendline & Impulsive break / continuation from previous
Tight 15M Flag and Hourly Corrective Continuation Formation
For the Risk Reward - should have remained at 1% and not moved to 0.5%. In these circumstances, it’s best not to be greedy and trying to achieve a small amount of profit when the downside potential is higher.
Keeping at breakeven could have closed for just over 1.4% instead of a smaller amount.
There were two points of interest, the inner structure Third Touch or the Outer Structure Third Touch.
As price reached inner structure Third Touch, we saw a rejection and I took a continuation on the 15M. Knowing that it was possible this could just be a move down short-term before a move up for the larger outer structure sell.
HTF Ascending Channel
HTF Correction after impulsive move
LTF Ascending within Ascending
Hourly Retrace at Third Touch
Very happy with this trade however it was a mismanagement, a High Probability Setup at Third Touch, with retracement and Risk Entry.
I should have left this at Break Even, with the potential to the downside and taken in a scale-in (which would be the next trade below). This would have enabled me to lock in around 2% safely.
Moved past Break Even just to reward myself and looking fairly impulsive from the trendline bounce, however a ‘Hover’ Formation was being created in hindsight analysis and potential Double Top in that zone was possible so not a safe place to move a Stop to.
Great Entry, just needed better management and less aggression.
Continuation from previous confluences
15M Double Top within Ascending Triangle / Falcon Flag Formation
Lovely pattern, with the expanding Triangle Double Top Risk Entry formation.
Management could have been improved, was expecting a possible a retest of the trend line break, but it just broke back through.
Potential to move to 1% on the break of the trendline but with the potential to the downside at this point I didn’t want to squeeze the trade to be tapped out then it drop.
Corrective Ascending Pattern within Expanding Wedge on the Higher Timeframe.
Move down for Third Touch before Bounce within Expanding Wedge
Break down to HTF outer structure for Third Touch
The second scenario was possible as this would complete the pattern, which would then create a reversal, descending pattern with 3 Touches, which would be a higher probability Pattern within Pattern setup.
Looking to capitalise on the move down from here for a Short Term play for the pattern completion.
Third Touch on the hourly saw a retrace, I entered on the break-below of this, utilising the 15M for precision as this showed a small tight continuation.
Went with a slightly wider Stop for a 15M entry, 20 instead of 15 due to thinking this had the potential to move back up for a retest so didn’t want an unnecessary tag-in-out and drop situation.
Very happy with this forecast, analysis and entry.
Fortunately I was working from home so capable of catching such a tight entry.
This really shows, with conviction and True Risk reward the better entries.
Multiple stacked confluences on this and a solid setup & trade.
Management was very good, using previous resistance as trail stop area. Price did eventually move all the way to break even then full retrace so it was best to manage aggressively as I did while it was uncertain around the trendline area.
Third Touch HTF Resistance
Hourly Ascending Corrective Channel towards third touch
Hourly Rejection & Retracement
Hourly Tweezer Top
Entry taken on on low of the retrace candle anticipating a break of the ascending channel.
Potential for a tighter entry but very happy with entry and management.
Because quite aggressive with management towards the Double Bottom zone, potential to lock in a little bit more profit but used previous highs on the Hourly as an inflection zone for invalidation if price was to reverse. Ended up being spiked out.